The research estimates that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) could increase by 0.9% month-on-month, reaching approximately 303.1 in September compared with 300.4 in August. A year earlier, the index stood at 275.6.

Food prices provide some relief

Food remains one of the largest components of Pakistan’s inflation basket, accounting for around 34.5%. AKD Research expects food prices to decline by 0.7% during September, helped by better supply conditions.

Several commonly purchased food items are expected to become cheaper. Tomato prices are estimated to drop by around 25.2%, while chicken could decline by 7.2%. Egg and potato prices are also projected to fall by 2.6% and 2.2%, respectively.

Prices of moong pulses, sugar and rice are expected to decrease more moderately.

However, not every food item is expected to follow the downward trend. Onion prices could increase by approximately 23% month-on-month, with the report linking the rise to the closure of the Afghan border. Wheat prices are also expected to move higher, with a projected increase of 2.1% amid international price pressures and domestic supply concerns.

Overall, food inflation is estimated at 7.2% year-on-year for September.

Transport costs emerge as a major pressure point

While food prices may offer some relief, transportation is expected to put considerable pressure on household budgets.

AKD Research estimates that transport inflation could reach 29.7% year-on-year, while the transport index may rise 7.6% in a single month.

The expected increase is primarily associated with higher petroleum prices. Motor spirit prices are projected to rise by 15.4%, while high-speed diesel could become 10.9% more expensive.

The impact on the transport index may be somewhat contained by greater use of lower-cost public transportation and relatively stable railway fares, according to the report.

Electricity bills likely to add to inflation

Housing-related costs are another area where consumers could face higher expenses. Housing inflation is projected at 12% year-on-year, with a monthly increase of approximately 2%.

Electricity charges are expected to climb by 10.1% month-on-month. The increase is linked to adjustments in fuel and quarterly tariffs.

According to the estimates, the Fuel Charges Adjustment is expected to rise to Rs2.06 per unit from Rs0.75 per unit in August. At the same time, a previously negative Quarterly Tariff Adjustment is expected to be replaced by a positive adjustment.

These changes could add to the financial burden on households even as some food prices decline.

Energy and global developments remain important

Liquefied hydrocarbon prices are also expected to increase, with AKD Research forecasting an 8.6% monthly rise. The report attributes the expected increase partly to supply disruptions associated with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict.

Other categories are also expected to record annual price increases. Communication inflation, for example, is projected at 13.7%, driven in part by higher communication service charges.

Clothing prices are expected to rise 8.9% year-on-year, while education and healthcare inflation are estimated at 7.8% and 7.3%, respectively.

What September’s inflation outlook means

The September outlook presents a mixed picture for Pakistani consumers. Lower food prices could help reduce some of the pressure on household budgets, but this benefit is likely to be offset to an extent by higher fuel, transportation and electricity expenses.

The expected 10% annual inflation rate therefore does not necessarily mean that prices are falling across the economy. Rather, it reflects a combination of slower food-price growth and continued increases in several non-food categories.

If the AKD estimates materialize, September would demonstrate how changes in energy prices, domestic supply conditions and external developments can simultaneously influence Pakistan’s inflation trajectory.

For households, the composition of inflation may matter just as much as the headline figure: cheaper vegetables and other food products may provide some relief, while higher fuel, electricity and transport costs could continue to affect monthly living expenses.

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